Uncategorized Daily Analysis Report: 18-02-2016

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What are the best forex blogs?

The internet is abundant with Forex blogs and it is usually pretty easy to see which ones are reliable or not. In my own personal experience I have found www.souqnt.com  to be one of the most valuable. Lots of active traders in the forums, and a steady stream of blog articles. Forex Factory (google it)  is another that I have personally found useful with a regular news feed also.

Most of the reputable brokers also host their own blogs and there are new ones popping up all the time. Going by this news article http://www.souqnt.com there is a new one launching soon by MahiFX that sounds like it  might be pretty good. According to the article they are also looking for guest bloggers

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Forex System Update: SMA Crossover Pullback

Another winning trade and a few new signals for the SMA Crossover Pullback forex system! If you’re wondering what I’m talking about, make sure you look at the trading rules and risk management adjustments first.

As I’ve shown in my previous update, EUR/JPY had a short position open but this eventually hit the 150-pip stop. A new crossover was made, followed by a stochastic pullback signal, generating a short position at 130.00 that made it all the way down to the 300-pip target. Talk about a solid comeback

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EUR/JPY 1-hour Forex ChartEUR/JPY 1-hour Forex Chart

EUR/JPY 1-hour Forex Chart

GBP/USD finally made a new crossover and generated a short signal at 1.4470

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GBP/USD 1-hour Forex Chart

GBP/USD 1-hour Forex Chart

AUD/USD also had a new crossover, with the stochastic pullback signal taking place just before the end of the week.
AUD/USD 1-hour Forex Chart

AUD/USD 1-hour Forex Chart

Lastly, EUR/USD had no new crossovers or signals yet since it just scored a huge win the other week

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EUR/USD 1-hour Forex Chart

EUR/USD 1-hour Forex Chart

Here’s a summary of the positions as of February 12:


All in all, the forex mechanical system scored a 150-pip win or a 1% gain on the account, adding to a February total of 750 pips or a 3% win so far. It looks like the forex trends are ever in our favor but I sure hope I didn’t jinx it!

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RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes put the currency movements into jolt mode

The central bank of Australia’s has set the record low interest rates, which have put off the consumer spending while the currency tends to increase the firm’s competitiveness in the capital market industry.

While the members have led to domestic data, has been on positive side & has led to the prospective growth of your business & to increase the country’s economic GDP. On the other hand, the economic inflation has remained unchanged at 2%.  The retaliation of this approach has set out a huge debate & controversial argument about the job market grows sustainment and global market turmoil while the inflation sustainment is a big problem.

While the RBA governor sees a global outlook & most underdeveloped china as signs of improvement, but still worry some is the Chinese market with a slower expansion in the industry. With a record low pace since 2008. One of the major concerns was high volatility & uncertainty in the market. The Chinese government is in pressurized form while managing the exchanging interest rate & foreign currency. It further depreciates the private capital outflows.

• Weak Commodities:

With weaker commodity prices in Australia, the demand for Chinese goods & investment boom has affected too. The Currency depreciation had been more than 30% in 3 years.

It has continued to have low interest rates as the consumption of real estate that includes personal as well as commercial consumption. That has resulted into the decrease of currency in the FOREX market. The output growth has been strong. While in today’s session, the currency has been wavering at 0.9910 against US dollar ($).

  In the 3rd quarter, the central banks have outnumbered their output with the 3 months to assess with the board & improvements in the labour market conditions that has been continuing the domestic demand. It has staggered the inflation growth with today’s monetary policy decision.

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The Reserve Bank on NZ inflation expectations drools lower 

 

 

An inflation expectations have risen the interest rate after a record low. While the reserve bank has shown the expectations for inflation has been plunging after a 22-year low record system. The survey shows that it has been lower than the 2 % target. In this quarter, the CPI (consumer price Index) has ruled out at 0.2% & there is a mild decrease in inflation at 1.5% target. The lower level of inflation has been some of the expectations that have fallen beyond the expectation.

According to Seven Star FX Research Center, there is a lower level of inflation rate that has been relative to the inflation target. While we are expecting that the inflation of the New Zealand economy will be dropped for a certain period of time and it should not come as a surprise.  We, however witnessed that there is a high amount of uncertainty in the FOREX market today

Majority all the biggest economists predicts that there is a high amount of Reserve Bank reserves, then there would be a major drop in official cash rates which can lead to further rates drop. However, we expect that the first OCR cut will be in this March or June of this year.

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EUR/USD huge downfall on after the bond market poor performance

 

 

Today, the currency pair “EUR/USD” trades at a very low level with 50 pips down below the range currently trading at level of 1.1120. While in the Asian trading session we see a high risk appetite & hence forth the currency seems to be increasing while the sentiments have begun to fade in the European session we predict a lower worst in the American trading session. The announcement of oil production cuts from Saudi Arabia and other oil producing economies freeze while the announcement has downgraded the market expectation has lower the demands with a sharp decline of 10.4. The market sentiments have been standing for 52.4 with the expectations below the assumption.

The Currency pair “EUR/USD” that currently trades at 1.1141 on the opening of US hours that may resume the trading activity after a long fallout in the European trading session. Technically in H1 chart the currency pair “EUR/USD” stood in a flat of 20 SMA while the price falls into bearish level. While in American trading session can put again the currency into a level of 1.1158

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Poor numbers of Japan prelim GDP q/q

The economy of Japan has contracted with today’s declaration of GDP q/q with lower demand & exports surrounding the economy. The numbers stood at -0.4% from the previous declaration of -0.2%, which comes to almost 2 times the numbers.

Despite the poor declaration several Asian markets have jumped to a record high of 7.3%, the major index of japan: Nikkei 225 stood at 16,037 in trading session but weakening the JPY in the FOREX market.

As the latest contraction have added to a cause of worry with the Prime minister & monetary policy decision makers for reviewing the policy to increase the inflation in the market. The major slowdown is due to monetary policy easing, which proved harmful to the economy & has added a new hindrance level.

 While the BoJ (Bank of Japan) has resorted to negative interest rate that holds the lending rate through certain cash rich companies that generally appears to low borrowing cost & certain cash rich companies. The growth rate has been stunted for the slow increase in wages that is inclined. While the several companies are still drawing that held an excessive capacity of growth & has viewed shrinking & aging the home market that has been a less attractive investment channel for the fastest growing economies in the world specifically in the Asian market. The Consumer demand has decreased than the expected forming a 5-year low in business investment

The BoJ needs to revive the tax in order to boost their inflationary pressure. Despite being the several loopholes in the market, the economy has increased to 0.3% last year as they are near to achieve $7 trillion economy by the year 2025. In regards to tax rate hike the corporate profits pressurize on the growth

While the JPY currency starts at a level of ¥113.6 against US $, while some of the major economist sees a potential growth in the economy while the traditional investors will stay away from the financial market volatility that will add to pressure on growth

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